Swift Message from Swing States - UPA won't be the Single Largest Post Election Combination

A Swift Message from Swing States – UPA won't be Single largest combination

K. Veeraiah.

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were swing states for the Congress in 2004 general elections. Out of 82 seats that both these states contribute to the parliament, almost all except five seats, were bagged by Congress led UPA alliance. This, despite the fact that the UPA at national level emerged after the elections. At the time of elections Congress had entered in to seat adjustments with state level players and like-minded parties in the two states.

In Andhra Pradesh after several rounds of closed door discussions in Delhi and in Hyderabad, Congress high command finally agreed to join hands with Telangana Rashtra Samiti to oust Chandrababu Naidu's 9 years misrule. The important factor that led the then adamant leader of opposition, YSR to join hands with TRS was the fear of losing in case of no alliance. Left parties took a principled stand to oust NDA in Center. Followed by the relentless struggle under the leadership of CPI (M) against TDP's neo liberal economic policies, this principled stand resulted in electoral understanding with Congress in Andhra Pradesh. Thus Grand Alliance against TDP-BJP combine in Andhra Pradesh emerged before 2004 general elections. The same is the case of Tamil Nadu. Left parties joined hands with DMK and Congress joined hands with DMK independently, thus the effective alliances combined with the political situation of these states helped these state level alliances to bag 77 seats in the both states. In the post poll scenario where UPA emerged out of all these state level alliances, this number acted as deciding factor for Congress to take a lead as single largest combination by having upper hand over NDA combination. In this way the state level pre-poll understandings and electoral alliances paved way for post poll coalition governments.

But the general elections of 2009 are witnessing a different scenario in these swing states. Both in Andhra Pradesh and in Tamil Nadu, though the reasons are different, the regional parties TRS and PMK parted ways with Congress led coalition. Both these regional partners hold 13 seats. Apart from that, the Left parties are fighting against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh and the Congress partnered coalition in Tamil Nadu. Both the Left parties have 4 seats. Thus out of 77 seats, the parties capable of winning 17 seats have already walked out from the coalition. The rest 60 seats are distributed between Congress and DMK.

Another important point to take notice of is the fact that in these swing states, the performance of Congress and DMK reached its peak. In Andhra Pradesh Congress never stood in such a strong position commanding almost 30 out of 42 seats on its own. Even in the wave that brought Rajiv Gandhi to power after assassination of the then Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, Congress in Andhra Pradesh did not gain as much as this. Thus after 1984 general elections TDP emerged as a single largest opposition party other than Congress and the Left. DMK's case in Tamil Nadu is also the same. Though the state is named after the massive shifts in each general election, at no point of time one party benefited so enormously as DMK did in 2004 general elections. In such a situation, in the both the states neither the Congress nor the DMK stand to increase their performance in their tally compared to 2004. According to a in-house estimates of Akbar Road 24, AICC head quarters, Congress is losing 5 to 7 seats from its current strength in Andhra Pradesh. But the ground level information is that it may lose more than 10 from its current strength. Though Congress is contesting in more seats than last time in Tamilnadu, due to PMK's walking out of the alliance, the winnable chances are definitely less for it and it is much more less for DMK. Even if DMK is able to resist the massive shift, the loss will be more than 50 %. Thus it has to shed at least 18-22 seats to the opposition alliance is a minimum. Thus the UPA stands to loose around 30 seats from the swing states. This loss to the UPA can not be compensated from the gains of Kerala and Karnataka, Rajasthan. Thus, the swift message from swing states is simple and clear. Neither Congress is going to retain its position of single largest party nor UPA stands to retain its position as single largest combination to claim power at Indraprastha.