Coming elections a watershed for AP
Undoubtedly the forthcoming general as well as assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh are going to be a watershed in the political history of the state. Andhra Pradesh once again witnessed political upsurge. Unlike in any other part of the country the state witnessed emergence of two new political outfits. One by TDP splinter group leader Devendar Gaud and the other one lead by famous film star Chiranjeevi. The basic difference between two from people’s perspective is only that Gaud has been seen by the people in his political career, in the party and also in the government where as Chiranjeevi’s political personification is not know so far. To be presise Chiranjeevi is untested and Gaud is tested as politician.
We need to look at in to the context of these two emergences. Gaud deserted his parental party on the issue of Telangana. Chiranjeev does not have any such ground except his zeal to represent and be represented by the people. In that sense Gaud is having limited area of operation which is geographically confined where as Chiranjeevi is having the whole state as his area of operation. Gaud has limited sphere of influence and Chiranjeevi is having larger sphere of influence. The another aspect to keep in mind is that Gaud, being a tested political persona, is having his tested base of supporters, issue, team though he is not dwelling in to a single point agenda where as Chiranjeevi’s case is otherwise. As he himself, his team, issues of priority, political skills, ideology, programme of action, mainly the perceived mass base are still to be tested.
To put in on a wider canvass we have to recognise one more fact. The state witnessed over the last two decades a serious, prolonged, militant mass movements based on issues such as world bank, caste discrimination, housing problem and off course corruption. All these movements were spearheaded by the Left in the state under the leadership of CPI(M). Though these movements are not preceded by general economic crises of late 70s, these movements also added to the political churning process that is underway. If we look at the last 3 decades of political landscape, earlier single party domination ended with the establishment of two party system as in the case of Tamilnadu. The people who tired off experiencing the single party domination for at least 30 years overwhelmed by the presence of Telugu Desam Party in early 80’s. But the last 30 years experience particularly of the current generation is not satisfied with the performance of both TDP and Cong. Though the Cong in the state has witnessed generational change of leadership, there is no change of policy direction. Telugu Desam also failed to prove itself as it comes to overseeing development of the state which was resulted in drubbing of TDP in the last elections.
Currently except the Left in the state which lead prolonged struggles, both TDP and Cong are facing credibility deficiency. Even after five years as principle opposition party, TDP could not generate the lost confidence. Instead of rethinking over the party’s priorities, TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu sat in confidence banking on the anti incumbency voting. Due to several administrative steps initiated by Congress government in the state, the level of resentment in the rural areas is not as it is in the urban areas. In urban areas also the resentment lacks its fierceness. Here lies the failure of principle opposition party in chanellising the resentment. The main reason for this failure is that the party could not gain confidence even after four and half years of its rule.
In this context we need to gauge the tactical moves of TDP. There is a turn around on the issue of forging electoral ties that too particularly with CPI(M) in this decade. If we remember while facing the assembly elections in 1997 Chandra Babu Naidu was riding on clouds. He fought on his own. By that time his new uncharted path of development has not paid dividends. So people overwhelmingly supported him by refusing congress. Since then his style of political operation had been completely changed. Those were the days either in Delhi, of in Hyderabad or in Washington, whatever TDP supreme says that used to be considered as a revelation ! With that credited charishma as an intellectual, he used to coin new slogans day by day. One such slogan is that “ herein after there are no isms except tourism” is meant to kidding the Left in India. I shall share with you one such incident where he was beaming with confidence about the re-election. While addressing a visiting journalists team from Delhi, in 2002, at his residence Babu brought an interesting comparison of Bengal, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh where in he said that in all these states there is no effective political opponent who can match with the ruling party at that time. And also he analysed that the principle opposition parties in respective states failed to put forward a viable policy alternatives ! He used to boost up his cadre by saying that he will rule like CPI(M) in Bengal uninterruptedly. This shows that he basically banked on the failure of opposition to come back to power but not on his competency as ruler. With that style of functioning, and attitude he de-linked himself and also his party from the grass roots. People won’t take too long to prove that neither his nor his compatriot Laalu’s policies are so viable. By now he should have realised what was and is the difference between Bengal and Andhra Pradesh or Jyoti Basu and him hopefully. After exactly 10 years, in an eleventh year he is crawling to join hands with CPI(M) to re-establish his links with grass roots and also to fill the credibility gap that he generated during his tenure.
The direction of YS Rajasekar Reddy lead Congress government is also more are less in the same direction. He is also now running in to clouds about the failure of TDP in acting in the interests of people as principle opposition party. Over these all four years TDP could not able to understand what exactly went wrong for it in the last elections. So he could not think over his policies except for the media consumption. Exactly in this situation Chiranjeevi came on to scene hoping to en-cash this failure of principle opposition party role. After two weeks of his launching the party, PRP representatives in Hyderabad declared that they need not to enter in to any electoral understandings to defeat Congress. In movies directors used to be behind the screen. Here also the main architect of PRP, Allu Aravind is behind the screen, true to his role as producer / director. But filming is different from politics. In film industry though the fans are not known to have aspirations beyond a point. But in politics, where each and every step relates to the daily public life, people’s aspirations, wants, beliefs are linked to their livelihood problems. Chiranjeevi could not provide any viable policy alternative to his credit. He is having fans linked mass base. The time will prove whether he will be able to impact by transforming this fans linked mass base in to a credible political base from where he has to re-launch himself as a serious contender for the power in the next elections.
As of now the situation looks like a multiparty contest in Telangana and triangular contest in other parts of the state. This is the first time the state is witnessing such a multiple contests across the state. This is the reason why I felt the next elections will be watershed in states political landscape.
Undoubtedly the forthcoming general as well as assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh are going to be a watershed in the political history of the state. Andhra Pradesh once again witnessed political upsurge. Unlike in any other part of the country the state witnessed emergence of two new political outfits. One by TDP splinter group leader Devendar Gaud and the other one lead by famous film star Chiranjeevi. The basic difference between two from people’s perspective is only that Gaud has been seen by the people in his political career, in the party and also in the government where as Chiranjeevi’s political personification is not know so far. To be presise Chiranjeevi is untested and Gaud is tested as politician.
We need to look at in to the context of these two emergences. Gaud deserted his parental party on the issue of Telangana. Chiranjeev does not have any such ground except his zeal to represent and be represented by the people. In that sense Gaud is having limited area of operation which is geographically confined where as Chiranjeevi is having the whole state as his area of operation. Gaud has limited sphere of influence and Chiranjeevi is having larger sphere of influence. The another aspect to keep in mind is that Gaud, being a tested political persona, is having his tested base of supporters, issue, team though he is not dwelling in to a single point agenda where as Chiranjeevi’s case is otherwise. As he himself, his team, issues of priority, political skills, ideology, programme of action, mainly the perceived mass base are still to be tested.
To put in on a wider canvass we have to recognise one more fact. The state witnessed over the last two decades a serious, prolonged, militant mass movements based on issues such as world bank, caste discrimination, housing problem and off course corruption. All these movements were spearheaded by the Left in the state under the leadership of CPI(M). Though these movements are not preceded by general economic crises of late 70s, these movements also added to the political churning process that is underway. If we look at the last 3 decades of political landscape, earlier single party domination ended with the establishment of two party system as in the case of Tamilnadu. The people who tired off experiencing the single party domination for at least 30 years overwhelmed by the presence of Telugu Desam Party in early 80’s. But the last 30 years experience particularly of the current generation is not satisfied with the performance of both TDP and Cong. Though the Cong in the state has witnessed generational change of leadership, there is no change of policy direction. Telugu Desam also failed to prove itself as it comes to overseeing development of the state which was resulted in drubbing of TDP in the last elections.
Currently except the Left in the state which lead prolonged struggles, both TDP and Cong are facing credibility deficiency. Even after five years as principle opposition party, TDP could not generate the lost confidence. Instead of rethinking over the party’s priorities, TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu sat in confidence banking on the anti incumbency voting. Due to several administrative steps initiated by Congress government in the state, the level of resentment in the rural areas is not as it is in the urban areas. In urban areas also the resentment lacks its fierceness. Here lies the failure of principle opposition party in chanellising the resentment. The main reason for this failure is that the party could not gain confidence even after four and half years of its rule.
In this context we need to gauge the tactical moves of TDP. There is a turn around on the issue of forging electoral ties that too particularly with CPI(M) in this decade. If we remember while facing the assembly elections in 1997 Chandra Babu Naidu was riding on clouds. He fought on his own. By that time his new uncharted path of development has not paid dividends. So people overwhelmingly supported him by refusing congress. Since then his style of political operation had been completely changed. Those were the days either in Delhi, of in Hyderabad or in Washington, whatever TDP supreme says that used to be considered as a revelation ! With that credited charishma as an intellectual, he used to coin new slogans day by day. One such slogan is that “ herein after there are no isms except tourism” is meant to kidding the Left in India. I shall share with you one such incident where he was beaming with confidence about the re-election. While addressing a visiting journalists team from Delhi, in 2002, at his residence Babu brought an interesting comparison of Bengal, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh where in he said that in all these states there is no effective political opponent who can match with the ruling party at that time. And also he analysed that the principle opposition parties in respective states failed to put forward a viable policy alternatives ! He used to boost up his cadre by saying that he will rule like CPI(M) in Bengal uninterruptedly. This shows that he basically banked on the failure of opposition to come back to power but not on his competency as ruler. With that style of functioning, and attitude he de-linked himself and also his party from the grass roots. People won’t take too long to prove that neither his nor his compatriot Laalu’s policies are so viable. By now he should have realised what was and is the difference between Bengal and Andhra Pradesh or Jyoti Basu and him hopefully. After exactly 10 years, in an eleventh year he is crawling to join hands with CPI(M) to re-establish his links with grass roots and also to fill the credibility gap that he generated during his tenure.
The direction of YS Rajasekar Reddy lead Congress government is also more are less in the same direction. He is also now running in to clouds about the failure of TDP in acting in the interests of people as principle opposition party. Over these all four years TDP could not able to understand what exactly went wrong for it in the last elections. So he could not think over his policies except for the media consumption. Exactly in this situation Chiranjeevi came on to scene hoping to en-cash this failure of principle opposition party role. After two weeks of his launching the party, PRP representatives in Hyderabad declared that they need not to enter in to any electoral understandings to defeat Congress. In movies directors used to be behind the screen. Here also the main architect of PRP, Allu Aravind is behind the screen, true to his role as producer / director. But filming is different from politics. In film industry though the fans are not known to have aspirations beyond a point. But in politics, where each and every step relates to the daily public life, people’s aspirations, wants, beliefs are linked to their livelihood problems. Chiranjeevi could not provide any viable policy alternative to his credit. He is having fans linked mass base. The time will prove whether he will be able to impact by transforming this fans linked mass base in to a credible political base from where he has to re-launch himself as a serious contender for the power in the next elections.
As of now the situation looks like a multiparty contest in Telangana and triangular contest in other parts of the state. This is the first time the state is witnessing such a multiple contests across the state. This is the reason why I felt the next elections will be watershed in states political landscape.
No comments:
Post a Comment